South Sudan has experienced near constant conflict in recent decades before and after independence in 2011. The resulting loss of livelihoods and displacements (1 in 3 have been forced to flee) have been compounded by both many years of limited investment in public services due to conflict and corruption, and disasters, including floods and drought. The ongoing turmoil has significantly undermined the country’s development prospects and intensified the suffering of its population.
Debt and development struggles
South Sudan has a total debt burden of 51.2% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP). The debt is owed mostly to external creditors at 34.8% of GDP, the commercial creditors at 15% of GDP, followed by multilateral creditors (as classified by the International Monetary Fund or IMF) at 14.7% of GDP, and then bilateral creditors at 5% of GDP. Domestic debt, or debt that is raised in the domestic financial market, is 32.1% of GDP. The IMF does not consider this total debt to GDP ratio to be unsustainable, but it does consider South Sudan at high risk of overall debt distress. Data by the IMF show this high risk of overall debt distress as linked to potential volatility in future revenue from oil sales, which currently make up 80% of South Sudan’s GDP. Noteworthy is the prevalence of prepaid oil for debt-borrowing models which have further undermined the potential revenue earnings from oil.
Debt repayment continues to take up a significant portion of South Sudan’s budget. For instance, in the 2023/2024 Budget cycle, debt servicing accounted for 13% of overall expenditure. This was more than allocations to education in the same financial year. Although the percentage of the budget allocated for debt repayment is lower than some countries in the region (such as Eritrea at 33.4%) , the country continues to face multiple lawsuits from creditors over debt default.
According to Transparency International, South Sudan ranks 177 out of 180 countries in the Corruption Perception Index (where 180 is the most corrupt country). South Sudan also ranks almost last in the Human Development Index – a broad measure of development including income, education and health – at 191 out of 193 countries. This low ranking reflects the severe human rights and developmental challenges faced by the nation. Out of a population of 12 million, an estimated 80% live below the absolute poverty line. Around 90% of the approximately 6.5 million children under 18 years in South Sudan are growing up in households struggling to survive and experience multidimensional poverty and 7.1 million experience acute hunger.
Addressing these challenges is further complicated by a significant portion of South Sudan’s resources being lost to illicit financial flows (IFFs). IFFs are defined by the UN Economic Commission for Africa (UNECA) as money illegally earned, used or transferred. In 2019 there were solidarity protests in Nairobi against the flow of IFFs from South Sudan into Kenya (and Uganda). Reports indicate that South Sudanese government officials, including military personnel, are channelling these illicit funds to private investments in Kenya and Uganda and to finance the conflict. Cumulative losses to IFFs from South Sudan are estimated to have cost USD 8.6 billion or the equivalent of almost 50% of the 2023/2024 budget.
Education challenges
70% of children in South Sudan are out of school. This dire situation is exacerbated by systemic deficiencies within the education system itself and overall governance. The UN Children’s Fund (UNICEF) notes, for example, that the non-payment of salaries for teachers risks many of them quitting. According to the Ministry of General Education, more than half of all teachers are untrained. It is therefore not surprising that the number of pupils to qualified teachers ranges from 46 to 133 in the 13 states – far more than the United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO) recommended ratio of 25 students per teacher. Over 2,000 schools do not have access to clean drinking water, 2042 schools are operating under trees, 1134 schools are temporary structures, 848 are semi-permanent and only 1115 schools are permanent. Such statistics risk breaching South Sudan’s minimum core obligations under international human rights law to provide for minimum essential levels of the most basic forms of education let alone acceptable quality highlighting the urgent need for substantial investment and reforms.
Yet the 2023/2024 budget allocated only 8% to education, which, while better than health which was at 2%, is well below the Incheon Declaration target of 15-20% of budget and seriously risks undermining South Sudan’s obligations under both the International Covenant on Economic, Social and Cultural Rights and the Convention on the Rights of the Child to adequately ensure the right to education for all its young people. This is in addition to Article 29 of its Constitution, which guarantees that all levels of government shall provide access to education for all without discrimination.
This neglect compromises the right to education, which is crucial for the prospects of its children and consequently the nation’s socio-economic development. The current shortfall in funding perpetuates a cycle of poverty and limits opportunities for young people, undermining their potential to contribute meaningfully to the nation’s rebuilding efforts and thereby risks forfeiting a generation’s ability to drive sustainable growth and stability.
The UN Special Rapporteur on Education describes how even during natural disasters and armed conflicts, the right to education should not be interrupted, delayed or even denied.
A Sustainable Way Forward
Beyond the immediate need to end conflict-related human rights violations and address displacement and continued loss of life, the government urgently needs to tackle corruption and IFFs. If it does this with international cooperation and assistance, it can use these additional resources for spending on public services such as education. It can also begin to implement a just transition away from its dependence on fossil fuel use and revenues. This should happen as close as possible to 2050 in line with South Sudan’s capacity and low responsibility for historical greenhouse gas emissions. In this context, South Sudan needs to make prudent use of its oil revenues in this transition period, to diversify its economy, expand its tax base and its tax capacity from its current 3.6% of GDP (far below the 15.6% average for African countries) as well as to use these resources to develop equitably. Customs duties, for example, constitute only 20% of tax revenues relative to domestic taxes which make up 80%. Personal Income Tax also contributed 50% to total tax collection showing there is potential to generate more from Corporate Income Taxes. Only through comprehensive fiscal reforms and strategic investments in public goods and services such as education can South Sudan hope to overcome its current challenges and create a foundation for long-term prosperity and stability.